An Analysis of Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Report

September 4, 2009 >
To: MRINetwork Owners From: Seamus Kelleher, Vice President of MarketingRe: Bureau of Labor Statistics Report (September 2009) >

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its employment numbers for the month of August this morning. We asked Kitchen PR to put together a short summary and analysis of the numbers.>

An Analysis of Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Report. >

The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm. >

Unemployment in August rose .3 percent to 9.7 percent, according to numbers released by the Labor Department this morning. Additionally, the U.S. shed 216,000 jobs in August which is the lowest level since early 2007. While the rise in the unemployment rate had stalled over the last few months, much of the August increase was due to reentrants, job seekers who had taken themselves out of the job market who have decided to begin searching again. The total number of unemployed persons, which includes those reentrants, rose by 466,000 to 14.9 million in August. >

August saw worker productivity spike at an annualized rate of 6.6 percent. A rise in productivity is often a precursor to new hiring as the combination of layoffs and recovering business cause per employee workload to begin to increase. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a survey done to predict where managers expect to spend, rose to 54 points, a 16 month high. Anything in excess of 50 points is considered to be predictive of growth. While the manufacturers that the PMI most directly affect are still hemorrhaging jobs-1.6 million in the last year-the rate of decline is at last starting to improve with a loss of just 63,000 last month. >

Unemployment among management, business, and financial occupations was virtually unchanged at 5 percent, while unemployment among other professionals and related occupations dropped sharply from 6 percent to 5.6 percent. The decrease was likely due to a statistical correction rather than a rapid improvement of circumstances. >

Better news continues to come from a variety of sources while actual positive job growth continues to be elusive. Lackluster back-to-school sales and today's rising unemployment rate throw cold water on a variety of stronger indicators of positive growth. Yet, the predictive indicators of the economy are still almost universally pointing up. A consensus is now building around positive labor market growth beginning in earnest early in 2010. >

MRINetwork


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http://dreamlearndobecome.blogspot.com This posting was made my Jim Jacobs, President & CEO of Jacobs Executive Advisors. Jim also serves as Leader of Jacobs Advisors' Insurance Practice.