Bureau of Labor Statistics Report - A turn around in the professional and business sector ?

Summary:

The shock value of the labor department's top line numbers may give a more massive stimulus package some legs yet the net result of today's numbers could be a turnaround before the professional and business services sector is hit much harder... Professional and business services... raising its unemployment rate from 3.0 to 3.2 percent... in line with the fallout from the 1990 recession ... However, the tech heavy 2000 recession caused more than a 5.8 percent decline between November 2000 and April of 2003.

December 5, 2008
To: MRINetwork Owners
From: Seamus Kelleher, Director of PR and Internal Communications
Re: Bureau of Labor Statistics Report (December 2008)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its employment numbers for the month of November this morning. We asked Kitchen PR to put together a short summary and analysis of the numbers.

An Analysis of Today's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Report November saw one of the steepest declines in employment since the 1970s, with some 533,000 positions lost according to today's numbers released by the Labor Department.


The unemployment rate continued to slide up from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent in November, with economists predicting a plateau in the mid 7 percent range next year. Healthcare and government became the only two sectors in November to see increases.

Professional and business services continued to lose positions during November at a rate of 7.7 per thousand, raising its unemployment rate from 3.0 to 3.2 percent. Since December 2007, when professional and business services peaked at 18.1 million positions, it has fallen by 361,000, or 2 percent. This is about in line with the fallout from the 1990 recession for the sector which fell by 2.2 percent. However, the tech heavy 2000 recession caused more than a 5.8 percent decline between November 2000 and April of 2003.

A more mixed indicator, the new unemployment insurance claims in the last two weeks of November began seeing small declines. While still at a relatively high number, 509,000 claims, its pace is no longer accelerating. The total number of recipients for unemployment insurance increased by just 63,750.

History shows that the length of a downturn will be the deciding factor for how hard professional and business services are hit. The shock value of the labor department's top line numbers may give a more massive stimulus package some legs and the net result of today's numbers could be a turnaround before the professional and business services sector is hit much harder

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This posting was made my Jim Jacobs, President & CEO of Jacobs Executive Advisors. Jim also serves as Leader of Jacobs Advisors' Insurance Practice.